Archive for category Visions
Yesterday Jakob Nielsen (a known internet usability expert) wrote that in 2005 the milestone of 1 billion internet users has been passed. On his blog he writes:
The Internet is growing at an annualized rate of 18% and now has one billion users. A second billion users will follow in the next ten years, bringing a dramatic change in worldwide usability needs.
According to Morgan Stanley estimates, 36% of Internet users are now in Asia and 24% are in Europe. Only 23% of users are in North America, where it all started in 1969 when two computers — one in Los Angeles, the other in Palo Alto — were networked together.
It took 36 years for the Internet to get its first billion users. The second billion will probably be added by 2015; most of these new users will be in Asia. The third billion will be harder, and might not be reached until 2040.
Ok, he guesses that the 2 billion border will be crossed in 2015. Well when I look at the fast adoption of the internet in Asia, i guess 2012 could be possible. And if the plans for the 100 dollar PC’s wil be realised, then I predict that 2,5 billion can be online in 2020.
The other 3,5 billion will be hard to reach under current conditions. For this we need a lot more investments in the poor countries. And these countries need food and a basic economy, before the will start thinking about global communications.
But, the internet can be of great value to developing countries. Recently I joined an organisation called Health Connections International. This organisation has the goal to build a portal to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and expertise between non-English speaking health professionals and English speaking HIV/AIDS, TB and demand and harm reduction specialists across the globe.
Initiatives like this will help the people in countries to fight the problems in there region and will result in more global exchange of knowledge. The success of sharing knowledge is in the numbers. A knowledge base used by two people is not really valuable. A knowledge base accessible to 2,5 billion users is extremely powerful. On my other blog I’m writing about technologies to build these solutions (internet application that can support a billion users). For this we need a some very good de centralized internet software components and good scaling standards…
I truly believe that in the near future (in the next 10 years) the 2 billion users will have a better live because of the services that can be provided over the internet…
When I think about the future, I’m always thinking about the ‘good things’ to come…
But for the last year, three topic just couldn’t fully escape my attention.
Radio frequencies and Magnetic fields
There are a lot of reports on the possible negative effect of GSM/FM/WIFI/GPRS/UMTS to people. Most reports focus on the possible damaging effect of radio frequencies to cells in your body (there are 100.000 billion). A friend of mine let me in on an new view on this. It could be that the radio frequencies don’t damage our cells, but what about the communication between these cells?
At the moment we don’t know. We are not abele to really research the consequences of people living in a word surrounded by electromagnetic fields and broadcasts from millions of radio frequencies.
There are scientists who say that there is a 30 year cycle for ‘global flu’. This flu is so tough that it could kill millions of people. The last cycle was 40 years ago (the spanisch flu)
At the moment there are children that are raised so clean, that they don’t evolve the natural resistance to bacteria.
What has our understanding to the benefits of hygiene done to this 30 year cycle?
Did we cracked the puzzle or is there more?
The fact that people with different opinions and beliefs don’t like each other
News flashes of people who kill lots of other people to proof that they commit to there belief isn’t a good thing. There is something like a ‘common understanding’ that there are people who think different then you do, because they experienced other things in there lives. This is basic physiology, right?
How can this be a bad thing to a god? This happens totally random! Is this a war between gods?
Gods don’t battle right? They just sit together on clouds….and relax..and stuff..
I guess people are making bad assumptions about there gods..
People should focus on today and make there decisions for tomorrow.
Not based on what could happen when you die..
This are the three ‘less positive’ topics that crossed my mind this year.
I promise that I will not think (and blog) about negative visions of the future for another year.
This is because there is a emotion that we don’t need on this planet, and that’s ‘fear’…
The future should always be seen as a brighter future, no matter what happens….
This is a great article that describes some ‘visions of the future’ from ‘Britain’s leading thinker’ Ian Pearson.
He predicts that within 45 year people can upload there consciousness into a computer, which will result in ‘immortal personalities’..
"’If you draw the timelines, realistically by 2050 we would expect to be able to download your mind into a machine, so when you die it’s not a major career problem,’ Pearson told The Observer. ‘If you’re rich enough then by 2050 it’s feasible. If you’re poor you’ll probably have to wait until 2075 or 2080 when it’s routine. We are very serious about it. That’s how fast this technology is moving: 45 years is a hell of a long time in IT.’"
I’m sure that i’m not the only one who ever thought of doing this to your own brain..:
"He believes that today’s youngsters may never have to die, and points to the rapid advances in computing power demonstrated last week, when Sony released the first details of its PlayStation 3. It is 35 times more powerful than previous games consoles. ‘The new PlayStation is 1 per cent as powerful as a human brain,’ he said. ‘It is into supercomputer status compared to 10 years ago. PlayStation 5 will probably be as powerful as the human brain.’"
Ian thinks that it will be possible to make a conscious computer with superhuman levels of intelligence before 2020! Can’t wait for that to happen! 🙂
And good news for the business users that are always crying and cursing about there inability to use computers and software, because (according to them) computers are user unfriendly….
"The next age, he predicts, will be that of ‘simplicity’ in around 2013-2015. ‘This is where the IT has actually become mature enough that people will be able to drive it without having to go on a training course. "
Well. this is definitely the best future vision I’ve read for a long time!
No more phone calls from the family to reinstall or configure there Windows desktop. Great!
Some weeks ago I remembered why I started this blog in the first place…
I wanted to share some of the visions I have on the near future.
Hmm. Since I forgot to do this, I promise that I will try to post one vision every week, for the coming months..
So, LET’S START. Here is my first vision…
I will start with a pretty sure thing…
”Within 10 years 50% of all house hold lighting will be based on LED technology.”
Well, what’s a LED?
Here is the answer on Wikipedia for those that don’t know yet..
So LED stands for Light Emitting Diode and is a very effective form of light, since there is no heat generation. Because of this LED use very little energy to producer light…
The first led was made in 1962. That’s more than 43 years ago. Probably they still work. LEDs have an extremely long life span, twice longer than the best fluorescent bulbs and twenty times longer than the best incandescent bulbs.
My father build a digital clock 30 years ago using LEDs. This thing has been on for 30 years, and is still working…
Here some more advantages of using LEDs (copied from Wikipedia)
LEDs are capable of emitting lights of an intended color without the use of color filters that traditional lighting methods use.
The shape of the LED package allows light to be focused. Incandescent and fluorescent sources often require an external reflector to collect light and direct it in a useable manner.
LEDs are built inside solid cases that protect them, making them hard to break and extremely durable
In Holland all traffic lights that fail, are replaced using LEDs…
The amount of light that a LED can produce is still increasing.
In 2002 5-watt LEDs were available with efficiencies of 18-22 lumens per watt.
This year this will go to 10-watt units with efficiencies of 60 lumens per watt, what means it will give the same amount of light as a normal 50 Watt light bulb..
Ok. Like most visions. You have to test them..
So last month… I put the first LED lights in my house..
I got a blue Led bulb housing 30 blue LEDs in my studio…
And….! I got a Led Bulb housing 30 White LEDs in my toilet…
See the pictures for more details..
So.. I predict.. 10 years.. and everybody got this type of lights in his or her toilet, kitchen or bedroom….. will see..